Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
